Structural excess, high-end production capacity is still insufficient. Policy fluctuations to disrupt the battery industry supply and demand match rhythm, PACK, batteries, positive, diaphragm, electrolyte and so there will be structural overcapacity, that is, high-end capacity, low-end excess capacity, the industry's overall gross margin will go down, lithium Salt, lithium carbonate prices under pressure, cobalt salt supply and demand reversal time delay.
The industry average gross margin of 30%, 2017H1 off-season there is price pressure, but the lithium copper foil supply and demand pattern is still good. The average gross profit margin of PACK, cell, cathode, anode, separator, electrolyte, lithium copper foil and lithium salt is about 20%, 30% and 10% respectively (but high nickel positive gross margin), 23% 20%, 30%, 40%, due to the momentum of the new energy car is lower than market expectations, the industry will be overcapacity, the overall gross profitability of the battery industry chain is high, next year the price Will be under pressure, but the lithium copper foil supply and demand imbalance is expected to continue until 2018 years.
Batteries: ternary 2017 annual production capacity of the release, the survival of the fittest
The overall oversupply, the specific depends on whether the joint venture can enter and whether the lifting of the bus ternary.
According to the various production capacity planning, 2017 yuan is expected to release the capacity of 28.8GWh (independent plant ternary capacity 20Gwh, the actual production capacity may be less than 20GWh), taking into account the policy fluctuations led to the production of some batteries manufacturers slowdown, the actual Battery capacity may be less than the forecast value;
We predict 2017, 2018 ternary demand were 9GWh, 15GWh (assuming the bus ternary does not lift) / 12GWh, 21GWh (assuming the bus ternary ban).
Line production capacity is still insufficient. According to our statistics, in 2017 the domestic first-line battery factory CATL, BYD's effective battery capacity 3.5GWh, front-line joint-cell effective production capacity 4GWh, if the joint venture is still excluded from the country, relative to the needs of 9-12GWh, Production capacity is obviously insufficient.
Lithium material: copper foil, high nickel, wet diaphragm market is better
Positive and negative: high nickel positive is expected to maintain a high gross rate, silicon carbon anode is expected to mass production
High nickel ternary is the direction of development, nickel is 60% cheaper than cobalt, but high nickel ternary on the production process requirements are very high The current positive industry gross margin of about 10%, technical barriers strong, is expected to high-end high-nickel ternary positive is expected to maintain a high gross margin; Tesla Model 3 using silicon anode driven by domestic silicon carbon and other high energy density Of the anode material is expected to mass production.
Diaphragm: dry single pull price is expected to decline, wet market pattern is better, gross margin is expected to maintain
· Wet double pull benefit from the high-end diaphragm market import substitution, ternary battery high growth rate and high technical barriers, gross margin is expected to maintain, dry single pull may be due to the pattern of supply and demand deteriorated gross margin down.
Copper foil: supply and demand imbalance continued to 2018, volume and price Quotes
· Supply and demand time does not match, the current annual production capacity of 42,000 tons, expansion cycle more than a year, with a certain technical barriers. Lithium copper foil is basically no inventory, need to see a single month capacity and new energy vehicles monthly volume, battery demand is still the driving force of price increases.
Lithium salt: oligarchy market structure, long-term bullish, next year, the price of lithium carbonate down pressure
The next year is expected to increase the power battery does not exceed 10GWh, corresponding to up to 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate, next year Ganfeng lithium industry on the expansion of 15,000 tons, lithium carbonate prices downward pressure, due to high nickel need to use lithium hydroxide, is expected Lithium hydroxide price support is stronger than lithium carbonate.
Cobalt: on the left side of the supply and demand balance reversal point, 2017 is still surplus, but the marginal improvement